According to the data released by the General Statistics Office, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter was estimated to decrease by 6.17% compared to the same period last year, which is the deepest decrease since Vietnam calculated and announced it. Quarterly GDP to date. In general, GDP in 9 months only increased by 1.42% over the same period last year.

Commenting on the growth results of the past 9 months, Dr. Nguyen Duc Thanh - Director of the Center for Economic and Strategic Research Vietnam - said that the Vietnamese economy missed the growth rate of 2020, the reason was that Vietnam was slow in the vaccination strategy.

"If in the period of 2020, Vietnam has the advantage that not many people are positive and we can prepare a good vaccine, it will limit the impact of the epidemic. In fact, up to now, when When countries are on a relatively stable trajectory, Vietnam is still struggling to reopen its economy," Thanh said.

According to Mr. Thanh, the repeated outbreaks of the disease during the year have stalled the economy, disrupted supply chains, disturbed the labor market, and hurt domestic businesses very badly. Along with that, geopolitical moves and world economic developments may increase risks for input factors of enterprises such as raw material prices, etc. This will affect when opening up the economy. , creating a delay for the economic recovery.

“So, from reality, the growth results of the first nine months of 2021 have not really reflected all the difficulties of the economy, especially for the informal sector. The resistance of enterprises is seriously declining, especially in the southern region, "- Mr. Thanh expressed.

Vietnam GDP growth forecast in 2021 can reach from 0.2% (low scenario) and about 1.8% (high scenario)

Additional comments, Assoc.Prof.Dr. Pham The Anh - Macroeconomic expert, Head of Macroeconomics Department, National Economics University, Chief Economist of VESS - said that in the past time, due to the impact of the epidemic, demand has been weak. goods cannot be circulated, however, the risk of inflation is still relatively large. Sooner or later, production costs will also be reflected in the output prices of products, from gasoline, logistics, and disease prevention costs, which businesses are suffering greatly.

“When social activities return, consumer demand increases, those factors will affect prices and put pressure on inflation. It is forecasted that food prices at the end of the year may increase again, due to difficulties in increasing supply such as re-herding, rainstorms, etc. while demand increases at the end of the year, "said Mr. The Anh.

At the exchange, experts also said that the prospect of economic growth depends largely on the speed and scale of vaccination; effectiveness of disease prevention measures; substantive effectiveness of support packages, promoting growth. Bad debt continues to accumulate and can increase sharply when it exceeds the enterprise's tolerance threshold. This is a potential cause of risks to the financial system in the post-pandemic period. Therefore, it is necessary to prepare for extreme situations to actively cope, to avoid confusion and inconsistency like the past time.

Faced with those difficulties and challenges, Mr. Thanh made a forecast: In the high scenario, growth in 2021 depends on when the whole country can agree on measures to adapt to the epidemic and ensure production and circulation. If the economy is not broken since the fourth quarter of this year, production and consumption activities are restored, vaccination is expanded to provinces in the last months of the year, GDP growth can reach less than 2%, about 1 percent. ,8%.

In the low scenario, when the policy has not been synchronized in the localities, the central government and the disease recurs in some localities, making the circulation difficult. It is difficult for businesses to have production plans, orders continue to leave Vietnam due to supply disruptions, labor shortages, high input costs... then GDP growth may be only 0.2 %. According to Mr. Thanh, although not at a negative growth rate, this is a very low level and in just a few weeks, through economic developments and anti-epidemic, we will see which side the scenario leans towards.

Also at the exchange, Mr. Thanh made some notes on policies to promote the economic recovery in the last quarter of 2021 such as the State should prioritize speeding up the progress and scale of vaccination on vaccinations. local; clearance of travel and circulation of goods; implement fiscal packages focusing on strengthening infrastructure, medical equipment and doctors, and at the same time supporting unemployed workers, especially in the informal sector.

In particular, it is necessary to request provincial leaders to fully implement the obligation to receive workers back to localities across the country. The reception back to the locality is an obligation that Vietnam performs very well.

With monetary policies, it is possible to meet the credit needs of the economy but it is necessary to have measures to control money supply growth around 10%, accompanied by measures to control risks at a moderate level. The mobilization of social resources needs to be uniformly implemented through interest rate tools and existing mechanisms in the financial market, with the only operating object being the Vietnamese dong...