What factors help Vietnam's exports to reach 618 billion USD by 2030?

Can Vietnam's exports grow higher than the global average?

Research report: "The Future of Trade: New Opportunities for High Growth Corridors", recently published by Standard Chartered, shows that the total global trade turnover in 2023 is expected to reach 32.6 trillion USD. , with a growth rate of 5%.

Exports are likely to reach $618 billion by 2030

Notably, according to this report, Vietnam will be one of the main contributors to the growth of global trade. Vietnam's exports are expected to reach $618 billion by 2030, with an annual growth rate of 7%, higher than the global average of 5%.

Ms. Michele Wee - General Director of Standard Chartered Bank Vietnam said that Vietnam has a lot of potential to become a global trade center.

Compared with the report released by Standard Chartered in 2021, which expects Vietnam's exports to reach more than 535 billion USD by 2030, after only 2 years, the forecast has increased by 83 billion USD.

On the import side, Standard Chartered estimates that by 2030, Vietnam's import turnover will be 578 billion USD, an average increase of 6.9% per year. Thus, Vietnam's trade balance continues to have a surplus, but mainly belongs to FDI enterprises.

China, South Korea and the US remain important trading partners of Vietnam in the coming years. These three markets have imported from Vietnam 171 billion USD in 2022. Besides, trade with India, Singapore and Indonesia is forecasted to grow strongly in the period 2021-2030.

With increasing international trade activities, Vietnam has emerged as an important production location, attracting FDI from Japan, Korea, the US, and the EU. The fields of machinery and electrical equipment, textiles, and electronics, etc. will continue to make great contributions to exports.

According to Ms. Michele Wee, the world's growing demand for electronic products, investment activities and sustainable development initiatives will continue to boost Vietnam's exports of key commodities. .

In difficult times, many products still have growth

The study "The Future of Trade: New Opportunities for High Growth Corridors" by Standard Chartered opens up expectations for our country's commodity exports in the coming time, especially in the context of import and export in the near future. The first half of 2023 has been facing many difficulties. According to statistics of the General Department of Customs, the total import and export turnover of Vietnam's goods from the beginning of the year to the end of June 15, 2023 reached more than $287.9 billion, down 15.2% over the same period in 2022. ; in which exports reached 148.87 billion USD, down 12% and import reached 139.07 billion USD, down 18.4%. The trade balance of goods had a trade surplus of 9.8 billion USD.

In the face of general difficulties, the export picture still has many bright spots. The latest update of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA) said that the price of 5% broken rice for Vietnam's export has increased 2 times in a row this week, until June 23, reaching an all-time high of US$508/ton. Notably, this price is higher than rice of the same quality of Thailand by 5 USD, Pakistan by 30 USD and India by 50 USD. Compared to the beginning of the year, the price of 5% broken rice in Vietnam has increased by more than 30 USD/ton. Rice prices have continuously increased since the beginning of the year, caused by scarce supply and high demand from importing countries. With the ongoing El Nino weather phenomenon, exporters believe that Vietnam's rice prices will continue to remain high and export favorable.

Exports of vegetables and fruits are also flourishing, especially durian. Because in the first year of export and only 5 months, this item has reached a value of 503 million USD. Notably, in May alone, durian exports reached a turnover of 332 million USD. The breakthrough growth of durian lifted the export value of fruits and vegetables in May to US$656 million, up 67.7% over the previous month.

Accumulated in the first 5 months of 2023, the export value of vegetables and fruits reached more than 2 billion USD - this is the highest export value in 5 months so far and increased by 43% over the same period last year.

With aquatic products, in May, the industry's export reached US$808 million, the highest figure month by month since the beginning of the year. Notably, key commodities have gradually reduced their decline over the same period. That shows signs of recovery are returning to this industry. Enterprises have actively overcome difficulties, promoting exports of dried fish and canned fish as well as promoting exports to new and potential markets.

Assessing the prospects of the seafood industry, Mr. Truong Dinh Hoe, General Secretary of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), said that the prospect of the seafood industry in 2023 is still quite positive, although there are still many prospects. hard. Enterprises can still look for opportunities if they restructure and diversify products and export markets.

Seafood, vegetables, rice... are all essential commodities that are in high demand in markets around the world. Therefore, these are considered to continue to be the main products of Vietnam from now until the end of the year.

Particularly for textiles, Ms. Nguyen Thi Tuyet Mai - Deputy General Secretary of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (VITAS) shared, although there are still many difficulties, but according to information from many businesses, after a long time of silence. Recently, the number of partners from Europe, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia... coming to learn about garment products tends to increase rapidly compared to previous months, especially in the office fashion segment. . Therefore, it is expected that export volume in the second half of the year will increase compared to the beginning of the year.

In order to increase import and export turnover in the coming time, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is making efforts to diversify export markets. Mr. Tran Thanh Hai - Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department - Ministry of Industry and Trade said that the diversification of the market is reflected in the fact that we have negotiated and signed FTAs . Currently, we have 15 FTAs that have been signed and are being implemented. Besides, the FTA with Israel has ended negotiations and is expected to be signed between now and the end of the year.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade is also considering implementing new FTAs such as FTA with the UAE. This is a country with very active trade activities in the Middle East and can completely become a gateway for us to bring goods to the Middle East and Africa. Or negotiate and sign an FTA with the Mercosur region including 6 countries in South America to expand the market to Brazil and Mexico.

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