That is the prediction of many domestic manufacturers as well as import-export enterprises about the fertilizer market movements in the last months of 2023.

World urea market increased slightly

If in the first months of 2023, the price of urea dropped "catastrophically", from the end of June until now, urea prices in many important markets around the world have recovered slightly. Accordingly, the world urea price has increased from 1-29 USD/ton in most regions. In the Middle East, trading slowed this week amid rapid price increases, with prices in Egypt increasing the most by as much as $29/ton in the last week of June compared to the previous week. On the West Coast of Suez, purchases for the soybean crop and for the preparation of goods for the harvest supported urea prices to increase by $1-10/ton.

Information from the news of Argus and Fertecon (reputable international market analysis and forecasting companies), in Southeast Asia, spot supply is still tight in the region due to the shutdown of 3 main factories. Operation for unplanned maintenance in Malaysia and Brunei and Indonesia has reduced the supply of about 380,000 tons of urea from April to now. In addition, the Indonesian government also applied restrictions on fertilizer exports to ensure supply for the domestic market.

In China, export price of granular urea is currently at 300-310 USD/ton FOB (price at the border gate of the seller's country), tightening the band more than last week's price of 290-320 USD/ton FOB. . The price of clear grain urea is 290-300 USD/ton FOB, up from 280-290 USD/ton FOB last week.

The price of urea may increase again at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter of this year due to seasonal factors, but not hot.

In France, the price of granular urea for immediate delivery in France is currently at 330-335 euros/ton FCA (carrier delivery price). Russian traders are currently offering prices above 330-335 euros/ton FCA.

In the Black Sea market, the price of urea in the Black Sea is equivalent to the price in the Baltic, at 240-250 USD/ton FOB, up 10 USD/ton compared to last week. The price of Russian opaque granules is at $250/ton based on the conversion price sold to Brazil while the price of non-Russian-produced granular urea is priced at $300/ton FOB, up from $15-20/ton from the previous week. .

Forecasting the urea market from now to the end of the year, many market research companies said that it is possible that the price of urea will increase slightly according to the trend of fluctuations in the price of coal and input gas for production. In addition, the imposition of new quotas on fertilizer exports by Russia from June 1 to November 30, 2023 is also a factor that may cause urea prices to increase in the last months of the year.

Domestic urea price may increase slightly, import enterprises "moderately"

Along with the world urea price trend, the domestic urea price is expected to increase slightly from now until the end of the year. Forecasting this market, Mr. Le Trong Phuc - General Director of Hanoi Chemicals and Technology Joint Stock Company (Hacheco) said: Firstly, in terms of supply, currently both Russia and China - two great powers. about fertilizers have been promoting the sale of fertilizers to the world after a long limited period. This makes fertilizer supply no longer scarce globally.

Second is about the price. Prices of fertilizer products, especially urea, have also fallen sharply. Currently, the price of urea imported from China is approximately 8 million VND/ton. While the domestic urea price is still fluctuating at 8.7-8.8 million VND/ton depending on the brand. At this price, coal-fired urea plants such as Ninh Binh Fertilizer and Ha Bac Fertilizer can be said to be struggling to compete with imported urea.

Thirdly, forecasting fertilizer prices from now until the end of the year, Mr. Phuc also said that maybe fertilizer prices will increase slightly again around the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter of this year. The reason is that the whole country will enter the peak of the crop season, especially in the North will enter the Winter and Chiem Spring crops - the time of biggest fertilizer consumption of the year. However, this increase is expected to be only a slight increase, unable to create a "fever" like in the past 2021 and 2022.

Fourth, Mr. Phuc also said that currently, domestic fertilizer production enterprises as well as commercial enterprises (fertilizer import and export - fertilizer production materials) this year are also facing great difficulties. The reason is because the price fluctuates erratically. Enterprises doing import and export of fertilizers from the beginning of the year to now have faced great difficulties, even losing tens of billions of dong when importing large consignments and facing down prices. Therefore, from now until the end of the year, importers will also import "in moderation" and listen to the market. know.

Sharing the same view, Ms. Nguyen Thi Tieu, Chairman of the Board of Directors cum General Director of Ha Anh Import-Export JSC - one of the big "names" in the field of fertilizer import and export of the country said that the fertilizer price from From now to the end of the year, it will increase slightly due to increased fertilizer demand when entering the rainy season as well as the need to prepare fertilizers for the Winter-Spring crop of 2024. Besides, the domestic urea price depends a lot on coal and gas prices. input materials. Meanwhile, currently, the demand for coal and gas for electricity production in Vietnam is increasing, so the price of these two important input materials for nitrogen fertilizer production may also increase, causing urea production costs to increase accordingly.

Mr. Phung Ha, Vice President and General Secretary of the Vietnam Fertilizer Association, said that currently, the urea production capacity of 4 factories under the Vietnam Oil and Gas Group (PVN) and the Vietnam Chemical Group (VINACHEM) Vinachem) has increased to approximately 3 million tons/year while domestic demand is only 1.6-1.8 million tons/year. Therefore, although the price of urea may increase slightly in the last months of the year, the domestic supply of fertilizer completely meets the fertilizer demand for production.

In the face of market fluctuations plus a large volume of imported goods in the first months of the year, Ha Anh Import-Export Joint Stock Company in the last 6 months of the year will also only consume domestically produced fertilizers, instead of importing fertilizers. as every year.