Trade surplus returned, trade balance gradually improved

According to the General Statistics Office, the total import and export turnover of goods in September 2021 reached 53.5 billion USD, up 4.2% over the same period last year. In which, export reached 27 billion USD, import reached 26.5 billion USD.

In the first nine months of 2021, the total import-export turnover of goods still maintained a high growth rate, reaching US$483.17 billion, up 24.4% over the same period last year, of which exports reached 240.52 billion USD, up 18.8%; imports reached 242.65 billion USD, up 30.5%.

IMPORT "Overwhelms" EXPORTS

In the first nine months of 2021, there are 31 items with export turnover of over 1 billion USD, accounting for 92.5% of total export turnover (6 export items of over 10 billion USD, accounting for 63.2%).

The export proportion of some key products belongs to the FDI sector, of which: phones and components account for 99.1%; electronics, computers and components accounted for 98%; machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts accounted for 92.5%; footwear accounted for 80.5%; textile accounted for 62.6%.

Regarding the structure of export products in the first nine months of 2021, the group of fuels and minerals reached US$2.66 billion, up 9.0% over the same period last year and accounting for 1.1% of the total export turnover. (decreased 0.1 percentage point over the same period last year).

The group of processed industrial products reached USD 214 billion, up 19.5% and accounting for 89% (up 0.6 percentage points).

The group of agricultural and forestry products reached USD 17.7 billion, up 17.6% and accounting for 7.4% (down 0.1 percentage point). The group of seafood products reached USD 6.17 billion, up 2.4% and accounting for 2.5% (down 0.4 percentage points).

In the past 9 months, the United States was Vietnam's largest export market with a turnover of 69.8 billion USD, up 27.6% over the same period last year. Next is China with 38.5 billion USD, up 18.3%. The EU market reached 28.8 billion USD, up 11.6%. The ASEAN market reached 20.6 billion USD, up 21.2%. Korea reached 16.1 billion USD, up 11.4%. Japan reached 14.7 billion USD, up 5.1%.

In the opposite direction, in the first 9 months of 2021, there are 36 imported items worth over 1 billion USD, accounting for 90.4% of the total import turnover.

Regarding the structure of imported goods in the first nine months of 2021, the group of capital goods reached US$227.65 billion, up 31.1% over the same period last year and accounting for 93.8% of the total import turnover of goods. increased by 0.4 percentage points over the same period last year).

In which, the group of machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts reached USD 111.45 billion, up 25.2% and accounting for 45.9% (down 2 percentage points); raw materials, fuel and materials reached 116.2 billion USD, up 37.4% and accounted for 47.9% (up 2.4 percentage points). The consumer goods group was estimated at 15 billion USD, up 22.4% and accounting for 6.2% (down 0.4 percentage points).

China is still Vietnam's largest import market in the first nine months of 2021 with a turnover of $81.3 billion, up 41.1% over the same period last year. Followed by the Korean market reached 40.2 billion USD, up 21.6%. ASEAN market reached 30.7 billion USD, up 41.2%; Japan reached 16.3 billion USD, up 11.6%; EU market reached 12.6 billion USD, up 19%; The United States reached 11.7 billion USD, up 12.7%.

Thus, the trade balance has returned to the "position" of trade surplus in September 2021 with 0.5 billion USD. However, due to the high trade deficit in the previous months, in the first 9 months of 2021, the trade deficit remained at 2.13 billion USD (the same period last year had a trade surplus of 16.66 billion USD), in which the sector The domestic economy had a trade deficit of 21 billion USD, the foreign invested sector (including crude oil) had a trade surplus of 18.87 billion USD.

SUPER IMPORT IS DECIDED

Explaining the cause of the trade deficit in the first nine months of 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said that it was due to the recovery of the world economy, increased demand, and domestic enterprises increased the amount of imported materials to serve the domestic market. manufacture. The increase in world commodity prices led to an increase in the import price of input materials for production, contributing to an increase in import turnover.

In addition, the increase in sea freight rates also increases costs and increases the value of imports, but exports have decelerated from June until now. In which, in June, the Covid-19 epidemic had a strong impact on the exports of enterprises in Bac Giang and Bac Ninh; In the months of July, August, and September, the Covid-19 epidemic had a strong impact on the exports of enterprises in the southern provinces and cities.

At the September 2021 regular press conference of the Ministry of Industry and Trade on September 30, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Do Thang Hai said that commodity exports are showing signs of slowing down since August. However, in September, the decline in export turnover growth was lower.

However, for the whole 9 months, exports still increased. This is one of the reasons contributing to GDP growth in the first 3 quarters of the year.

Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), said that in the second and third quarters of 2021, the complicated development of the Covid-19 epidemic affected production centers. as large as Bac Giang, Bac Ninh, and southern provinces such as Ho Chi Minh City, Binh Duong, Dong Nai and provinces in the Mekong Delta...

The 19 southern provinces alone are equivalent to 45% of the country's export turnover. It shows that these provinces and cities have been affected by the epidemic and applied social distancing measures, so they have seriously affected production activities and thereby negatively affected export turnover. our country's exports.

Accordingly, after a period of being affected by the epidemic, the trade deficit returned and by July, the trade deficit was relatively large, up to more than 2 billion USD. However, this trade deficit has gradually decreased. In August, the trade deficit was just over 100 million USD and in September, the trade surplus returned to about 0.5 billion USD. This is good news.

In general, 9 months, Vietnam still has a trade deficit of about 2.13 billion USD. If compared with import turnover, equivalent to 0.8%. This is not a huge gap and we have three months of Q4 left.

 "We can completely believe that by the end of 2021, the trade balance will remain at a balanced level. And if the situation is more optimistic, we can have a trade surplus at a certain rate." Mr. Tran Thanh Hai commented.

On the basis of preliminary export situation in the first months of the year, in case the epidemic is under control, and production activities will soon be restored, the Ministry of Industry and Trade forecasts that exports for the whole year 2021 are estimated at about 313 billion USD. an increase of about 10.7% compared to 2020, exceeding the target assigned by the Government (4-5%) and exceeding the target set out by the Ministry of Industry and Trade in Decision No. 163/BCT-KH dated January 19, 2021 (4-5%).